Bitcoin (BTC) stays below $19,000, upside unlikely

Bitcoin (BTC) struggled to reclaim the crucial $20,000 mark today, July 12, as the US dollar slowly cooled again.

Bitcoin Price Chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

US dollar needs breather

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that the tug-of-war between buyers and sellers is tied, but the price of bitcoin is at a seven-day low.

The losses were caused by a resurgent US dollar index (DXY), which recently even reached its highest level since October 2002, putting pressure on risky financial products such as cryptocurrencies.

US Dollar Index (DXY). Source: TradingView

However, the DXY’s intermittent breather has given the American stock market some breathing space, and both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 have been able to prevent major losses.

With all eyes now on the publication of the new US inflation numbers on July 13th, optimism is generally contained.

Accordingly, trader Crypto Ed fears that Bitcoin and the stock market will “have to bleed even more” in the near future.

“There’s a very small chance we’ll move up to $24,000 or $25,000,” the analyst concedes, looking at Elliott Waves, but there really isn’t much potential.

Accordingly, the chances of a larger leap are “small”, while a new “downward crash” is still conceivable.

Long-term investors particularly under pressure

The analysts at Glassnode remain cautiously optimistic in the long term, seeing the Bitcoin price almost at the end of the prevailing bear market.

To this end, they write in their current newsletter “The Week On-Chain” that long-term investors in particular – who actually have the greatest staying power – are now coming under “massive pressure”.

In the end, it could go down again noticeably if the price cycles of the past few days repeat themselves.

“The current market structure shows many signs of the end stages of a bear market, where the strongest market participants, the long-term investors and the miners, come under massive pressure to sell off,” the analysts said. To which they add:

“The proportion of the outstanding amount that is in the red has now reached 44.7%, the majority of which again belongs to the group of long-term investors. At least it’s less bad than previous bear markets.”

A key figure that supports this reading is the so-called Long-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (LTH-SOPR), which shows the average profit or loss of long-term investors. Long-term investors (LTHs) are understood to be wallets that have held BTC for at least 155 days.

“The LTH-SOPR is currently at 0.67, which means that long-term investors are currently losing an average of 33%,” notes Glassnode.

Long-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (LTH-SOPR). Source: Glassnode

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